- Here at Archbridge Capital we are judged on our performance. We are done so continuously and relentlessly. And we exist because judgement has been favourable. In that spirit we thought it was worth tracking how we did on our published research, even though our published research occurs after we have already entered into the positions we advocate.
- We have published a number of views/trades in our publications in the last few months (list and results to date below).
- Out of the five suggested trades since our last scorecard four have been profitable, with one very much so. None have been stopped, but one has been exited for the most part (crude oil). This is not a common occurrence in trading where all trades work, but it does happen from time to time and we are grateful.
- Overall the portfolio has been very profitable. Please note that it is the fact that profitable trades are much more profitable in comparison to losing trades that assures the portfolio overall to be profitable (though in this case there are no losing trades we had recommended).
- "There are good trades that make money and bad trades that make money. There are good trades that lose money and bad trades that lose money. Money in the long-run is made from continuously taking the good trades." - Old Trading Adage.
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It is time to lay it bare and go over our recommendations again and see how our recommendations have pperformed, given that they are published some time after we have put on the recommended trades ourselves.
THE GOOD
Short JPY long Dollars: We have since last November recommended shorting the Japanese yen against dollars. This trade has worked very well over the duration and we expect this trade to continue working well for some time to come, as fundamental reasons are perhaps even more in place than they were then; especially if the trade is implemented against the US$, whose appreciation we have talked about in "Emerging Markets be aware" Thursday, March 21, 2013. and we believe that to continue.
Long US$: We expect that the US$ has indeed entered an up-cycle as the rest of the world is taking the reflation burden more and more on their shoulders, which will give the USA more scope to reduce its massive QE programme within the next 12 months and allow the US$ to appreciate even further. For more details please see our newly published article and the above mentioned "Emerging Markets be aware".
Short Crude oil outright or via spreads: We recommended shorting crude outright or crude spreads and have done so near 110 US$ for Brent. We then recommended substantially reducing the position while it was trading around 100US$ in "Is there Method in the Market Madness?" Tuesday, April 23, 2013
As we have gone on public record via interviews or publications we do believe that the brent crude price will eventually end up trading below 100US$ but as we had stated we have only a very small position on this view via spreads at the moment.
Short US Treasuries: We recommended in "There is treasure in those Treasuries" Thursday, April 4, 2013
to short longer term US treasuries for the longer run (12 to 18 months), since we do not believe that negative real yields more than 10-years out are sustainable and that the US economy is recovering (despite the massive fiscal drag the US government has forced upon it...just think what would happen if that drag was removed...). This trade is working well to-date but really should be seen as a much longer term position which will come into full swing after the turn of the year and beyond.
Longish Equities: We have in "Market Madness..." recommended to be longish the equities market and that the next equity wind will come a.) from a rotation out of bonds into equities - which has not happened yet, instead we saw money move from cash into equities, the great rotation is yet to come, and we believe it will in due course. b.) from lower input costs due to commodity prices re-aligning themselves to their new marginal cost price. This part is already underway and we are seeing this not only in energy but also in industrial metals like copper. We mentioned longish equities due to two reasons: 1.) a large margined presence in the equities space via investors which has often signalled exhaustion and 2.) an already large move where the underlying fundamentals are not able to keep up and an overcrowding of this trade - though overcrowding is perhaps a little misleading since hedge fund beta on equities is one of the lowest and there may eventually be a chase for the missed return in equities...we sustain our relatively small exposure to US equities.
THE BAD
Not this time and for that we are grateful
THE UGLY
Not this time and for that we are grateful
Overall, we had a good period with most, if not all our recommendations bearing fruit and making substantial gains, even when published after we had already entered into the trades ourselves ahead of time.
Not this time and for that we are grateful
THE UGLY
Not this time and for that we are grateful
Overall, we had a good period with most, if not all our recommendations bearing fruit and making substantial gains, even when published after we had already entered into the trades ourselves ahead of time.
Disclaimer: This posting is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer,recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. No representation or warranty is made that this information is complete or accurate. Any views or opinions expressed do not necessarily represent those of Archbridge Capital AG. This information is not intended, tax or legal advice. You also acknowledge that the information should not be construed as a solicitation or offer by Archbridge Capital AG to buy or sell any securities or any other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service. Unless otherwise stated, any pricing information given in this posting is indicative only, is subject to changes and does not constitute an offer to deal at any price quoted. You should be aware that returns can be volatile and you may lose all or a portion of your investment. Past performance of any investment or trading tool is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results.