Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Press Snips CNBC TV

  • We, here at Archbridge Capital are trying to inform our readers about some of the trades that we take ourselves and to demonstrate our views about the markets. In short we put our money where our mouth is and are quiet otherwise. Obviously, we do not publish all our trades and also do not publish our ideas before we have put on the trades ourselves, as we do need to leave some advantage to our investors and ourselves. 
  • We believe that in that spirit we should also update you every once in a while, when we are in the press giving interviews on CNBC, the BBC or Bloomberg. Although we are a Swiss based company, recent interviews have been conducted by our CIO who speaks Turkish amongst other languages.
  • The below CNBC TV interview from the 11th of March 2014 has some interesting features including a viewer question, how we would invest 100k today. Other detailed themes include our view on the Euro, on the Turkish Lira and on Oil. A unique view about China and its risks.
  • Please note that all below interviews are in Turkish.
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The first clip of the CNBC Interview dated March 2014 includes a detailed analysis of the Euro.




 
  The second clip of the CNBC Interview dated March 2014 discusses our View for the OIL price in 2014.


 



 The third clip of the CNBC Interview dated March 2014 discusses our impressions of China.



 The fourth clip of the CNBC Interview dated March 2014 discusses our long term bullish views on US Equities and why there may be a correction in the short term.



 The fifth clip of the CNBC Interview dated March 2014 expresses our concern for the TL and Turkish equities.
  




The final clip of the CNBC Interview dated March 2014 answers the question how we would invest 100k today - and hence discusses some of our current trading positions.






Disclaimer: This report was prepared and distributed by Archbridge Capital AG, a company regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA via VQF. The report was prepared and distributed for information purposes only. It contains information and opinions, which may be used as the basis for trading undertaken by Archbridge Capital AG and its officers, employees and related associates. The report should not be construed as solicitation nor as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any asset, security or financial instrument or provide any investment advice or service, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. All information, opinions, estimates, forecasts, technical levels and valuations contained herein, are subject to change without notice. The report also contains information provided by third parties. Whilst Archbridge Capital AG has taken all reasonable steps to ensure this information is correct, Archbridge Capital AG does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any views or opinions expressed do not necessarily represent those of Archbridge Capital AG. The assets, securities and financial instruments discussed herein, may not be suitable for all investors, depending on individual needs, objectives and financial conditions. Any person placing reliance on the report to undertake trading does so entirely at their own risk and Archbridge Capital AG does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from any use of this material. You should be aware that returns can be volatile and you may lose all or a portion of your investment. Past performance of any investment or trading tool or strategy is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results. This information is not intended tax or legal advice. Unless otherwise stated, any pricing information given in this posting is indicative only, is subject to changes and does not constitute an offer to deal at any price quoted. As electronic publications are subject to alternations, Archbridge Capital AG shall not be liable for the improper transmission of this message, including the completion of information contained herein, the delay in its receipt, any possible interference, any possible damage to your system, or transmission of viruses.






Sunday, March 16, 2014

Press Snips CNBC TV

  • We, here at Archbridge Capital are trying to inform our readers about some of the trades that we take ourselves and to demonstrate our views about the markets. In short we put our money where our mouth is and are quiet otherwise. Obviously, we do not publish all our trades and also do not publish our ideas before we have put on the trades ourselves, as we do need to leave some advantage to our investors and ourselves. 
  • We believe that in that spirit we should also update you every once in a while, when we are in the press giving interviews on CNBC, the BBC or Bloomberg. Although we are a Swiss based company, recent interviews have been conducted by our CIO who speaks Turkish amongst other languages.
  • The below CNBC TV interview from the 21st of Feb 2014 highlights our views on FX trades, European Deflation, Emerging Markets and some ideas for portfolio allocations in 2014.
  • Please note that all below interviews are in Turkish.
___________________________________________________________________________________

For the entire interview, which was CNBC Turkey's most watched, please click on the link below.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
The first clip of the CNBC Interview dated February 2014 highlights which Emerging Markets remain vulnerable and why.
 
 



 

  The second clip of the CNBC Interview dated Feb 2014 discusses our View for the TRY-US$ and the Euro in 2014





 
 


 The third clip of the CNBC Interview dated Feb 2014 discusses our bullish View for both US equities in the long term and the US$ as we approach year-end
 
 


 
 The fourth clip of the CNBC Interview dated Feb 2014 discusses our views on Gold, which we view as related in the longer run to real interest rates and risks in the world, focused on the Ukraine.
 
 
 
 
 
 


 

Disclaimer: This report was prepared and distributed by Archbridge Capital AG, a company regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA via VQF. The report was prepared and distributed for information purposes only. It contains information and opinions, which may be used as the basis for trading undertaken by Archbridge Capital AG and its officers, employees and related associates. The report should not be construed as solicitation nor as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any asset, security or financial instrument or provide any investment advice or service, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. All information, opinions, estimates, forecasts, technical levels and valuations contained herein, are subject to change without notice. The report also contains information provided by third parties. Whilst Archbridge Capital AG has taken all reasonable steps to ensure this information is correct, Archbridge Capital AG does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any views or opinions expressed do not necessarily represent those of Archbridge Capital AG. The assets, securities and financial instruments discussed herein, may not be suitable for all investors, depending on individual needs, objectives and financial conditions. Any person placing reliance on the report to undertake trading does so entirely at their own risk and Archbridge Capital AG does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from any use of this material. You should be aware that returns can be volatile and you may lose all or a portion of your investment. Past performance of any investment or trading tool or strategy is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results. This information is not intended tax or legal advice. Unless otherwise stated, any pricing information given in this posting is indicative only, is subject to changes and does not constitute an offer to deal at any price quoted. As electronic publications are subject to alternations, Archbridge Capital AG shall not be liable for the improper transmission of this message, including the completion of information contained herein, the delay in its receipt, any possible interference, any possible damage to your system, or transmission of viruses.



 

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

ABC ScoreCard

  • Here at Archbridge Capital we are judged on our performance. We are done so continuously and relentlessly. And we exist because judgement has been favourable. In that spirit we thought it was worth tracking how we did on our published research, even though our published research occurs after we have already entered/exited into the positions we advocate. 
  • We have published a number of views/trades in our publications in the last few months (list and results to date below). 
  • Out of the four suggested trades since our last scorecard HALF have been profitable. SINCE INCEPTION (I.E. THE FIRST TIME WE RECOMMENDED THESE TRADES, ALL HAVE BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY PROFITABLE.)
  • Overall the portfolio has been Neutral since the last ScoreCard. Please note that over time it is the fact that profitable trades are much more profitable in comparison to losing trades that assures the portfolio overall to be profitable.
  • "There are good trades that make money and bad trades that make money. There are good trades that lose money and bad trades that lose money. Money in the long-run is made from continuously taking the good trades." - Old Trading Adage.
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We shall start 2014 by updating our ScoreCard. Please note that we are recommending changes to our current positions, although our Macro-economic themes remain in place, due to external factors. All trades without exception are profitable since Inception but only half are so since the last ScoreCard back at the end of December 2013.



THE GOOD:

Long US Equities: Positive

This trade has done marginally well since the last scorecard published in December. Though equities in the US will continue on their trajectory we find it prudent to exit this very profitable trade (though it has really not made any substantial returns since the last Scorecard at the end of December, it has nevertheless made substantial sums since we have first put on this trade back in May 2013) due to the uncertainties pertaining to the Ukrainian situation and China's banking system. We have seen the repurcussions of using Copper as collateral in China and are worried that this may not be the end of the liquidation process. This process could result in further defaults in corporate China and though we believe the government will act by either cutting reserve requirements or increasing money supply, we still would like to err on the side of caution.



Long US$ vs EM FX: Positive

The US$ has indeed strengthened against some EM markets, especially those with current account deficits, as predicted back in May in our publication "A love supreme - The US$ is back". However, in essence we have published this trade in earnest in our ScoreCard of September 2013 and it has performed handsomely ever since.The Turkish Lira stands out as the star performer as unexpected yet welcomed political issues have caused the Lira to depreciate quickly above our well publicised 2.20 target against the US$. We will however, exit the trade immidiately above 2.20 TRY/$ as we do believe that unexpected events both within Turkey and abroad could unexpectedly cause very volatile movements. In essence, within Turkey we do expect more political pressure before the local elections at the end of March, but are in no way certain, while abroad the uncertainty over both China and the Ukraine again moves us to the sideline.


THE BAD

Short US Treasuries: Negative

This trade has performed well over time, and we have recommended this trade back in April 2013  in "There is treasure in those Treasuries" (Thursday, April 4, 2013) with a 12-18 months time horizon (in April US 10-year yields were trading around 1.60 vs their current 2.73 level). Since the last ScoreCard at the end of December 2013 this trade has performed quite badly and this may be exacerbated by the Ukrainian and Chinese situation as well as the bad economic data coming out of the USA due to its harsh weather. We are, however, unwilling to cut this overall substantially profitable trade and sit tight.




Short JPY long USD: Negative

Since the last ScoreCard this trade has not performed and fell from around 105 to 102.7 currently. However, we view this trade (which is still substantially profitable since we recommended it first time back in November 2012 and exited briefly  in "Take Five" June 3, 2013 and re-entered in July 2013's ScoreCard) as a structural trade where the monetary policy over the next year or more of the USA will be the exact opposite of Japan's. The USA will tighten monetary stimulus further, while Japan will continue to loosen theirs. If what we believe about China's slowdown becomes reality over 2014 we could see Japan doing even more QE than currently planned over this year. We expect to see levels above 115-120 in the US$ JPY trade, though this will take some time. In the meantime we would suggest reducing the position and keeping stops wide and positions moderate.

We are also exploring to short the Yen against other currencies like the GBP and the Euro, and hence constructing a basket against the yen. We will not add to the position due the uncertainties mentioned above and the status of the Yen as a safe haven currency (the reason for which is beyond us, but it is the harsh reality that we must adhere to).


THE UGLY

Not this time and for that we are grateful.


Overall, we had a moderate period with half our recommendations bearing fruit and making gains, even when published after we had already entered into the trades ourselves ahead of time.




Disclaimer: This report was prepared and distributed by Archbridge Capital AG, a company regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA via VQF. The report was prepared and distributed for information purposes only. It contains information and opinions, which may be used as the basis for trading undertaken by Archbridge Capital AG and its officers, employees and related associates. The report should not be construed as solicitation nor as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any asset, security or financial instrument or provide any investment advice or service, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. All information, opinions, estimates, forecasts, technical levels and valuations contained herein, are subject to change without notice. The report also contains information provided by third parties. Whilst Archbridge Capital AG has taken all reasonable steps to ensure this information is correct, Archbridge Capital AG does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any views or opinions expressed do not necessarily represent those of Archbridge Capital AG. The assets, securities and financial instruments discussed herein, may not be suitable for all investors, depending on individual needs, objectives and financial conditions. Any person placing reliance on the report to undertake trading does so entirely at their own risk and Archbridge Capital AG does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from any use of this material. You should be aware that returns can be volatile and you may lose all or a portion of your investment. Past performance of any investment or trading tool or strategy is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results. This information is not intended tax or legal advice. Unless otherwise stated, any pricing information given in this posting is indicative only, is subject to changes and does not constitute an offer to deal at any price quoted. As electronic publications are subject to alternations, Archbridge Capital AG shall not be liable for the improper transmission of this message, including the completion of information contained herein, the delay in its receipt, any possible interference, any possible damage to your system, or transmission of viruses.




Monday, March 10, 2014

Press Snips Bloomberg TV

  • We, here at Archbridge Capital are trying to inform our readers about some of the trades that we take ourselves and to demonstrate our views about the markets. In short we put our money where our mouth is and are quiet otherwise. Obviously, we do not publish all our trades and also do not publish our ideas before we have put on the trades ourselves, as we do need to leave some advantage to our investors and ourselves. 
  • We believe that in that spirit we should also update you every once in a while, when we are in the press giving interviews on CNBC, the BBC or Bloomberg. Although we are a Swiss based company, recent interviews have been conducted by our CIO who speaks Turkish amongst other languages.
  • The below Bloomberg TV interview published a few days ago highlights our views on: FX trades, Turkish Current Account Deficit, US$ targets, the Euro and some ideas for portfolio allocations in 2014.
  • Please note that all below interviews are in Turkish.

___________________________________________________________________________________

The below clip of the Bloomberg Interview dated 14th of February 2014 discusses conditions and likelihood under which the Turkish Lira would be able to avoid further depreciation.
 
 

 
 
 
This clip of the Bloomberg Interview dated 14th of February 2014 discusses the path of the Fed funds rate rises and the future of Euro-US$. Overall an expectation that the US$ will strengthen in the second half of 2014.
 
 
 
 
 
This clip of the Bloomberg Interview dated 14th of February 2014 discusses the Turkish Lira FX rate and that we see further depreciation versus the US$ though the pace of depreciation is expected to slow as long as the Turkish Central Bank continues raising rates by a few percentage points.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 



Disclaimer: This report was prepared and distributed by Archbridge Capital AG, a company regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA via VQF. The report was prepared and distributed for information purposes only. It contains information and opinions, which may be used as the basis for trading undertaken by Archbridge Capital AG and its officers, employees and related associates. The report should not be construed as solicitation nor as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any asset, security or financial instrument or provide any investment advice or service, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. All information, opinions, estimates, forecasts, technical levels and valuations contained herein, are subject to change without notice. The report also contains information provided by third parties. Whilst Archbridge Capital AG has taken all reasonable steps to ensure this information is correct, Archbridge Capital AG does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any views or opinions expressed do not necessarily represent those of Archbridge Capital AG. The assets, securities and financial instruments discussed herein, may not be suitable for all investors, depending on individual needs, objectives and financial conditions. Any person placing reliance on the report to undertake trading does so entirely at their own risk and Archbridge Capital AG does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from any use of this material. You should be aware that returns can be volatile and you may lose all or a portion of your investment. Past performance of any investment or trading tool or strategy is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results. This information is not intended tax or legal advice. Unless otherwise stated, any pricing information given in this posting is indicative only, is subject to changes and does not constitute an offer to deal at any price quoted. As electronic publications are subject to alternations, Archbridge Capital AG shall not be liable for the improper transmission of this message, including the completion of information contained herein, the delay in its receipt, any possible interference, any possible damage to your system, or transmission of viruses.