Friday, May 16, 2014

Bloomberg TV: Turkish Lira in detail, the Ukraine crisis and Gold prices

We, here at Archbridge Capital are trying to inform our readers about some of the trades that we take ourselves and to demonstrate our views about the markets. In short we put our money where our mouth is and are quiet otherwise. Obviously, we do not publish all our trades and also do not publish our ideas before we have put on the trades ourselves, as we do need to leave some advantage to our investors and ourselves.

We believe that in that spirit we should also update you every once in a while, when we are in the press giving interviews on CNBC, the BBC, Hedge Fund Insight, Bloomberg or others. Although we are a Swiss based company, recent interviews have been conducted by our CIO who speaks Turkish amongst other languages.

The below Bloomberg TV interview from March 2014 has some interesting features including an in-depth look at China, the Ukraine, the US equities markets and the US crisis in historical perspective.

Please note that all below interviews are in Turkish.

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The first clip of the Bloomberg Interview dated 12th of May 2014 on our view of the Turkish Lira in detail.

Our first target, as written in Trade Street of 2.10-2.07 has been reached.
We expect longer term Turkish Lira weakening going forward.
Economic fundamentals on both sides of the trade seem to support this view, including imported inflation

The second clip of the 12th of May Bloomberg Interview discusses our take on the Ukraine crisis and our long held view that Russia will not step back on Crimea and that still war will be avoided, even if parts of Eastern Ukraine are annexed.

The third clip of the 12th of May Bloomberg Interview discusses our price perspective on Gold.

Disclaimer: This report was prepared and distributed by Archbridge Capital AG, a company regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA via VQF. The report was prepared and distributed for information purposes only. It contains information and opinions, which may be used as the basis for trading undertaken by Archbridge Capital AG and its officers, employees and related associates. The report should not be construed as solicitation nor as offering advice for the purposes of the purchase or sale of any asset, security or financial instrument or provide any investment advice or service, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. All information, opinions, estimates, forecasts, technical levels and valuations contained herein, are subject to change without notice. The report also contains information provided by third parties. Whilst Archbridge Capital AG has taken all reasonable steps to ensure this information is correct, Archbridge Capital AG does not offer any warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. Any views or opinions expressed do not necessarily represent those of Archbridge Capital AG. The assets, securities and financial instruments discussed herein, may not be suitable for all investors, depending on individual needs, objectives and financial conditions. Any person placing reliance on the report to undertake trading does so entirely at their own risk and Archbridge Capital AG does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from any use of this material. You should be aware that returns can be volatile and you may lose all or a portion of your investment. Past performance of any investment or trading tool or strategy is not necessarily indicative of future performance or results. This information is not intended tax or legal advice. Unless otherwise stated, any pricing information given in this posting is indicative only, is subject to changes and does not constitute an offer to deal at any price quoted. As electronic publications are subject to alternations, Archbridge Capital AG shall not be liable for the improper transmission of this message, including the completion of information contained herein, the delay in its receipt, any possible interference, any possible damage to your system, or transmission of viruses.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Bloomberg TV: Archbridge Views on China, Ukraine and USA

Please note that all below interviews are in Turkish.

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The first clip of the Bloomberg Interview dated March 2014 includes our take on the Ukraine and that Russia would go to war over Crimea if necessary. Nevertheless, we do not believe that war will break out.

The second clip of the Bloomberg Interview discusses our Views about the future of China.

The third clip of the Bloomberg Interview discusses our historical perspective on the USA and her equity markets.

Sunday, May 11, 2014

Press Snips CNBC TV

The below CNBC TV interview from the 10th of April 2014 has some interesting features including an indepth look at Europe, the Euro, the US equities markets and the US$.

Please note that all below interviews are in Turkish.

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The first clip of the CNBC Interview dated April 2014 includes a detailed analysis of Europe, the ECB and the effects on the Euro.

The second clip of the CNBC Interview dated April 2014 discusses our View about the US economy, her equity markets and the US$.

Monday, May 5, 2014

Press Snips: Archbridge Views on Bloomberg

We, here at Archbridge Capital are trying to inform our readers about some of the trades that we take ourselves and to demonstrate our views about the markets. In short we put our money where our mouth is and are quiet otherwise. Obviously, we do not publish all our trades and also do not publish our ideas before we have put on the trades ourselves, as we do need to leave some advantage to our investors and ourselves.

We believe that in that spirit we should also update you every once in a while, when we are in the press giving interviews on CNBC, the BBC, Hedge Fund Insight, Bloomberg and others.

The below Bloomberg interview from the 15th of April 2014 includes our views on the Euro, the US$ and on the Turkish Lira. It can also be found on: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-15/dollar-poised-for-20-percent-gain-as-u-s-grows-archbridge-says.html

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Dollar Set to Gain 20 Percent as U.S. Grows, Archbridge Says

By Taylan Bilgic - Apr 15, 2014

The dollar may appreciate 20 percent against “pretty much everything else” by the end of next year as the world’s biggest economy gathers steam, Archbridge Capital AG says.

“We’ll see the dollar strengthening from the final quarter of 2014 onward, as short-term U.S. interest rate increases approach,” Hakan Kocayusufpasaoglu, chief investment officer at the Zug, Switzerland-based hedge fund, said in a phone interview yesterday. Archbridge’s successful past trades include shorting the yen versus the dollar in late 2012 and betting last August that the Turkish lira would decline to about 2.20 per dollar from 1.86, Kocayusufpasaoglu said.

U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, data from the Commerce Department in Washington shows. Kocayusufpasaoglu expects the U.S. economy to grow at 3 percent in 2014, compared with an average forecast of 2.7 percent in a Bloomberg survey.

The dollar index, which tracks six major currencies against the greenback, has declined 4.9 percent since May 22, when the then-Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke first signaled the U.S. would start cutting its $85 billion in monthly asset purchases. The euro, which accounts for 58 percent of the index, gained about 7 percent against the dollar in the period.

Euro Fall

Archbridge is building a position in the dollar index “little by little” because in the short-term the euro could gain on lack of European Central Bank policy, Kocayusufpasaoglu said.

“The ECB will probably be slow in acting against the threat of deflation,” which would create further upward pressure on its currency, he said. “Euro area exports will have serious issues when the currency hits 1.42 and above per dollar.” Once the ECB acts, the euro will fall to 1.30 per dollar by the end of 2014, he said. That implies depreciation of almost 6 percent from today.

If Turkey’s central bank cuts interest rates there would be “a decent chance” that the lira would depreciate to 2.15 per dollar or lower, Kocayusufpasaoglu said.

Archbridge’s macro fund has returned 2.5 percent so far this year, following 19.3 percent in 2013, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Archbridge doesn’t disclose assets under management, Kocayusufpasaoglu said.

The Fed, which has been keeping its target rate at between zero and 0.25 percent since 2008, will start to increase it in June or September next year, Kocayusufpasaoglu said.

“The direction is clear and it’s supportive of the dollar,” he said.